Periodic/Sector reports
Automobile: 9M26 TIV Remains Resilient; Raising TIV Forecast To 810,000 Units
MARKET WEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
Highlights
- MAA’s 9M26 TIV expanded 4.2% yoy to 603,990 units, driven by resilient mass-market demand, aggressive promotional campaigns and higher EV penetration. However, volume growth is concentrated in select marques like Proton, Mazda, and Chery, while other major players face modest contractions due to intensifying competition.
- BYD’s strategic CKD partnership with Inokom solidifies its long-term commitment in Malaysia, although earnings contribution is expected to be minimal for Sime Darby and Bermaz Auto.
- Raise our 2026 TIV forecast to 810,000 units (previously: 790,000 units), as we expect vehicle sales to remain resilient, underpinned by a favourable fuel subsidies mechanism alongside a robust pipeline of new model rollouts. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
Analysis
- Sales moderated mom, cumulative 9M26 TIV remained robust. Malaysia Automotive Association’s (MAA) Sep 26 total industry volume (TIV) registered sales of 70,111 units (-4.2% mom, +19.8% yoy). The sequential softening was expected following aggressive Merdeka promotional campaigns in August. Cumulatively, 9M26 TIV sustained strong structural momentum, rising 4.2% yoy to 603,990 units on the back of resilient demand in the mass market segment and a steady stream of new model launches. That said, underlying volume growth remains highly asymmetric, with gains heavily concentrated in select marques like Proton, Mazda, and Chery, while other major players faced modest contractions due to intensifying competition.
- Competition is intensifying in the affordable mass-market segment. Proton delivered 18,149 units (-9.9% mom, +44.4% yoy) in Sep 26, expanding its 9M26 market share to 25% (vs. 19% in 9M25), mainly driven by robust volumes for the Proton Saga MC3 and e.MAS 5. Conversely, despite posting a 19% yoy volume increase to 27,838 units, Perodua's 9M26 market share fell from 44% to 41%. Lacking fresh core model refreshes, Perodua has been forced to deploy heavier discounting even on its top-selling models, as well as significant price cuts on the Perodua QEV. With the next-generation Myvi potentially launching only in mid-27, we expect Proton to continue capturing market share from Perodua over the coming quarters.
Highlights
- MAA’s 9M26 TIV expanded 4.2% yoy to 603,990 units, driven by resilient mass-market demand, aggressive promotional campaigns and higher EV penetration. However, volume growth is concentrated in select marques like Proton, Mazda, and Chery, while other major players face modest contractions due to intensifying competition.
- BYD’s strategic CKD partnership with Inokom solidifies its long-term commitment in Malaysia, although earnings contribution is expected to be minimal for Sime Darby and Bermaz Auto.
- Raise our 2026 TIV forecast to 810,000 units (previously: 790,000 units), as we expect vehicle sales to remain resilient, underpinned by a favourable fuel subsidies mechanism alongside a robust pipeline of new model rollouts. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.
Analysis
- Sales moderated mom, cumulative 9M26 TIV remained robust. Malaysia Automotive Association’s (MAA) Sep 26 total industry volume (TIV) registered sales of 70,111 units (-4.2% mom, +19.8% yoy). The sequential softening was expected following aggressive Merdeka promotional campaigns in August. Cumulatively, 9M26 TIV sustained strong structural momentum, rising 4.2% yoy to 603,990 units on the back of resilient demand in the mass market segment and a steady stream of new model launches. That said, underlying volume growth remains highly asymmetric, with gains heavily concentrated in select marques like Proton, Mazda, and Chery, while other major players faced modest contractions due to intensifying competition.
- Competition is intensifying in the affordable mass-market segment. Proton delivered 18,149 units (-9.9% mom, +44.4% yoy) in Sep 26, expanding its 9M26 market share to 25% (vs. 19% in 9M25), mainly driven by robust volumes for the Proton Saga MC3 and e.MAS 5. Conversely, despite posting a 19% yoy volume increase to 27,838 units, Perodua's 9M26 market share fell from 44% to 41%. Lacking fresh core model refreshes, Perodua has been forced to deploy heavier discounting even on its top-selling models, as well as significant price cuts on the Perodua QEV. With the next-generation Myvi potentially launching only in mid-27, we expect Proton to continue capturing market share from Perodua over the coming quarters.
MARKET WEIGHT (Maintained)
Analyst
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