Periodic/Sector reports
Plantation - China’s Soyoil Surplus: Peaking Before It Bites
Highlights
- China turned into a net exporter of soybean oil in 2025, after record soybean imports left its crushers with more oil than its home market could absorb. Its soybean oil exports tripled to 776,000 tonnes in 9M26, and India's share rose to 47% from 32% in 2025.
- The volumes are small against India's needs. Chinese customs data show 477,000 tonnes shipped to India in Nov 25-Sep 26, accounting for about 8% of India's record 5.65m tonnes of soybean oil imports. Palm oil's share of India's vegetable oil imports rose to 48% from 45% in Nov 25-Jul 26.
- China's official forecasts point to a smaller surplus in 2026/27, with soybean imports down 7.6% and edible oil exports down to 760,000 tonnes as Beijing shrinks the sow herd. China's palm oil imports rose 24.9% in 9M26, mostly from Indonesia.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Analysis
- Record crushing has turned China into a soybean oil exporter. China imported a record 111.83m tonnes of soybeans in 2025, and the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) shows a further 86.18m tonnes in 9M26, level with a year earlier. GACC data show soybean oil exports rose to 561,000 tonnes in 2025 from 126,000 tonnes in 2024, with India taking 32% after buying none in 2024. Exports reached 776,000 tonnes in 9M26, three times a year earlier, and India's share rose to 47%. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Beijing office expects record soybean oil exports of 1m tonnes in Oct 25-Sep 26, as crushing for meal outpaces demand for cooking oil.
- Chinese soybean oil acts as a price cap in India, with limited volume. GACC recorded 477,000 tonnes of soybean oil shipped to India in Nov 25-Sep 26, about 8% of the 5.65m tonnes of soybean oil and 3% of all vegetable oils that the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) shows India imported in Nov 25-Sep 26. Palm oil still gained ground, with imports up 11.5% to 5.75m tonnes in Nov 25-Jul 26. Chinese crude soybean oil left for India at US$1,178-1,193 per tonne free on board (FOB) in Jul-Sep 26, in line with Argentine soybean oil at US$1,198 for Nov 26 shipment. Malaysian palm olein's FOB discount to Argentine soybean oil was only US$52-80 per tonne for Nov-Dec 26 shipment on 3 November.
Highlights
- China turned into a net exporter of soybean oil in 2025, after record soybean imports left its crushers with more oil than its home market could absorb. Its soybean oil exports tripled to 776,000 tonnes in 9M26, and India's share rose to 47% from 32% in 2025.
- The volumes are small against India's needs. Chinese customs data show 477,000 tonnes shipped to India in Nov 25-Sep 26, accounting for about 8% of India's record 5.65m tonnes of soybean oil imports. Palm oil's share of India's vegetable oil imports rose to 48% from 45% in Nov 25-Jul 26.
- China's official forecasts point to a smaller surplus in 2026/27, with soybean imports down 7.6% and edible oil exports down to 760,000 tonnes as Beijing shrinks the sow herd. China's palm oil imports rose 24.9% in 9M26, mostly from Indonesia.
- Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Analysis
- Record crushing has turned China into a soybean oil exporter. China imported a record 111.83m tonnes of soybeans in 2025, and the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) shows a further 86.18m tonnes in 9M26, level with a year earlier. GACC data show soybean oil exports rose to 561,000 tonnes in 2025 from 126,000 tonnes in 2024, with India taking 32% after buying none in 2024. Exports reached 776,000 tonnes in 9M26, three times a year earlier, and India's share rose to 47%. The US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) Beijing office expects record soybean oil exports of 1m tonnes in Oct 25-Sep 26, as crushing for meal outpaces demand for cooking oil.
- Chinese soybean oil acts as a price cap in India, with limited volume. GACC recorded 477,000 tonnes of soybean oil shipped to India in Nov 25-Sep 26, about 8% of the 5.65m tonnes of soybean oil and 3% of all vegetable oils that the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) shows India imported in Nov 25-Sep 26. Palm oil still gained ground, with imports up 11.5% to 5.75m tonnes in Nov 25-Jul 26. Chinese crude soybean oil left for India at US$1,178-1,193 per tonne free on board (FOB) in Jul-Sep 26, in line with Argentine soybean oil at US$1,198 for Nov 26 shipment. Malaysian palm olein's FOB discount to Argentine soybean oil was only US$52-80 per tonne for Nov-Dec 26 shipment on 3 November.
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